This Deliverable is based on the first Stakeholder Workshop held on 1st March, 2018 in Brussels and it describes the intended scope of the SUPREMA Project. It addresses different areas discussed at the 1st SUPREMA Workshop ‘Needs’ where the understanding of the challenges and needs posed to the future development of models and model based support for policy actions was emphasized and achieved. The focus was on agri-food systems and policies influencing the agri-food system locally, nationally and on a global scale. A first part comprises the stocktaking which was conducted by a questionnaire to the SUPREMA Partners. The responses were compiled together in a first scoping paper which, in turn, was used to develop the interactive 1st SUPREMA Workshop ‘Needs’ and to define the roles of Partners within the Workshop.
Two objectives were addressed from a policy perspective: We aimed to capture views of stakeholders on the future societal challenges of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and other related policy areas as well as to identify stakeholder needs for model-based analysis (both medium-term until 2030 and long-term until 2050) which may affect the future agri-food system and may require model based policy analysis for an evidence-based decision making.
The paper describes 1st SUPREMA Workshop ‘Needs’ where the understanding of the challenges and needs posed to the future development of models and model based support for policy actions was achieved. The focus was on agri-food systems and policies influencing the agri-food system locally, nationally and on a global scale. It deals on the concept and the proceedings of the interactive 1st SUPREMA Workshop ‘Needs’. Two objectives were addressed from a policy perspective:
We aimed to capture views of stakeholders on the future societal challenges of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and other related policy areas as well as to identify stakeholder needs for model-based analysis (both medium-term until 2030 and long-term until 2050) which may affect the future agri-food system and may require model based policy analysis for an evidence-based decision making.
This deliverable presents the narratives of the impact analyses in SUPREMA and serves as input for the scenarios to be run with the SUPREMA models. We envisage three narratives, respectively related to the baseline and scenarios: (a) Baseline, (b) EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and (c) climate change policy. Note that the feedback of the stakeholder workshops, respectively, on needs and narratives has been taken into account in the narratives. Applying a participatory approach involving stakeholders and their first-hand information ensures that insights from the “real world” are taken up into the SUPREMA modelling.
The CAP narrative focuses on CAP measures related to climate and the environment. These are new fundamental obligation on EU Member States, being an important priority within their CAP strategic plans. We elaborate on the economic elements, primary agricultural production, supply chain and consumer preferences, including sustainability considerations of the CAP. For climate policy, the modelling undertaken within SUPREMA aims at assessing the potential contribution of the EU agricultural sector to climate change mitigation efforts, by considering mitigation targets, specific sectors and regions. In the narratives, we include life style changes, which are linked to consumer preference that are part of the CAP narrative. Sustainability is explicitly captured by carbon sequestration and growth in the supply of bioenergy, both representing new economic opportunities and linking the SUPREMA narrative on climate policy to the sustainable development goals.
The Workshop on ‘Narratives’ took place on Tuesday, 5th March 2019, at the Representation of Lower Saxony to the European Union in Brussels. The input of the stakeholders served as an inventory of information supporting for policy assessments from the stakeholders‘ perspective. As a starting point for the discussion, presentations were given on the topics findings of the workshop on “Needs”, and narratives for respectively the baseline, the climate change policy and the CAP. The presentations focused on (i) scenarios, model linkages and improvements; (ii) strengths and weaknesses in the modelling; and (iii) possibilities of future directions in modelling.
The discussions with the stakeholders showed the communication challenge with regard to the role of baseline and scenario narratives. In order to evaluate the impact of any policy, measures have to be additional to what happens in the baseline. For the baseline, information about agri-food outlooks could be used. With regard to the CAP, for example, the scenarios should relate to the CAP objectives, thereby taking into account that farming needs to remain viable in terms of earnings/ income, while making the required efforts for sustainability and the environment. With regard to climate policy, it was mentioned that the focus should be on the 1.5 degrees scenarios that would be elaborated from the EU perspective. The input provided by the stakeholders is taken up in the narratives of the project, as elaborated in deliverable D1.3. Those issues that cannot be taken on board within SUPREMA will be considered for future research, i.e. for the roadmap with future directions for agricultural modelling in the EU.
This report provides a brief description of the models AGMEMOD, CAPRI, GLOBIOM, IFM-CAP, MAGNET and MITERRA-Europe, as well as references to recent applications in the fields of agriculture, climate, water and bioenergy. Furthermore, the report highlights previous cooperation efforts among modelling teams, illustrating the importance of model interlinkages and platforms to deliver integrated and comprehensive impact assessments.