This deliverable focuses on comparing the results of the reference scenarios simulated by the SUPREMA model suite and on providing possible reasons for their divergence. It follows the idea to participate in the baseline comparison effort to documents the models’ baseline assumptions. Differences in these assumptions have led the model teams to use a harmonized set of external variables for producing comparable modelling outcomes. The current effort is the first coordinated attempt to harmonize and compare the baselines of the models, which are reviewed in this report. Therefore, this deliverable also discusses further options for aligning the models and their subsequent successful linking.
The deliverable reports on the main outcomes of the modelling of the agricultural policy scenario have been done as part of the SUPREMA project. The time frame of this scenario is a medium-term horizon. The aim of this modelling exercise is to compare different models and/or model combinations, that have a large degree of ‘similarity’ as they have a large set of joined indicator variables. As it here concerns a comparison of the AGMEMOD-MITERRA (combined) modelling tool on the one hand and the CAPRI model on the other hand, the main focus has been on comparing and discussing selected model results in both the economic and agronomic or biophysical domains. The results provide a good illustration of the impacts at different levels, e.g. Member State, regional, sectoral and commodity, etc.
Two variants of the agricultural policy scenario have been simulated and compared: (i) a CAP greening scenario; and (ii) a sustainable diet scenario. Both scenarios are hypothetical but have been chosen in such a way that the can provide insights in future policy issues as: (i) a further greening of the CAP fits in the policy implementation space as it is included in the ongoing policy reform of the CAP after 2020; and (ii) as increasing consumer awareness about healthy diets and their relation to meat consumption, as well as the footprint/climate consequences are highly relevant with respect to the Green Deal roadmap (December 2019) and the Farm to Fork Strategy (May 2020) documents that have been recently published.
This report serves as the final deliverable of Task 3.3 of the SUPREMA project and developed and quantified the GHG mitigation potential of the EU’s agricultural sector and domestic and global impacts of the EU policy conditional on different levels of GHG mitigation efforts in the rest of the world. The quantified scenario matrix applying the SUPREMA models CAPRI, GLOBIOM and MAGNET includes scenarios where the EU only takes ambitious unilateral climate action up to scenario where the 1.5 C target is pursued globally.
Results show that even an ambitious EU mitigation policy targeting agriculture via a carbon tax delivers only limited GHG savings at global scale if other regions outside the EU do not take action on agriculture. In this set-up, emission leakage substantially reduces domestic EU emission savings while EU livestock producers are heavily impacted and production decreases. However, if at least modest mitigation efforts are pursued in parallel outside the EU, impacts on local producers can be buffered as EU farmers are among the most GHG efficient producers and can maintain their global competitiveness despite the ambitious EU mitigation policy. In addition, 19 times higher GHG abatement can be realized if modest (10% of the carbon price) efforts are adopted outside the EU compared to the scenario where only EU takes mitigation action, which allows to realize already 50% of the total agricultural mitigation potential expected to reach the 1.5°C target cost-efficiently across all sectors of the economy.