Future directions of modelling in agriculture have been explored and tested through scenario applications involving the SUPREMA models in a coordinated fashion. This testing enabled for a better understanding of the functioning of the SUPREMA model family and the EU agricultural sector at different spatial scales (e.g. European, national, regional and farm level) for different applications. A baseline and two selected policy case studies were implemented to showcase the potential and limitations of the model suite which aims to represent different scales of agriculture, various agricultural activities, different aspects of upstream and downstream sectors, bilateral trade and multiple policies affecting agriculture directly or indirectly.
During the 2nd stakeholder workshop "Narratives", narratives for impact analyses have been selected by participants to finally demonstrate the current ability of SUPREMA toolbox. In principle, three narratives were envisaged (a) Baseline, (b) EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and (c) climate change related policies. The CAP-related narrative addressed measures with a focus on climate change and environmental issues as outlined in the new fundamental obligations, setting also important priority within EU members’ CAP strategic plans. For climate policy, simulations under SUPREMA aimed at assessing potential contributions of the EU agricultural sector to climate change mitigation efforts. This narrative covered mitigation targets (e.g. various levels of ambitions for reductions on non-CO2 emissions (methane) with respect to different agricultural sectors and measures (e.g. reflecting different types of manure management) and regions (EU versus other countries). Under the selected narratives, participants opted to reflect and to analyse lifestyle changes by adjusted consumer preferences as well. SUPREMA also links narratives on climate policy to the sustainable development goals.
Workshop Future Prospects
At the 3rd workshop "Future Prospects", outcomes of different scenarios and issues were presented and discussed with stakeholders addressing three main areas:
- Selected draft results on long-term baseline and climate related scenarios
- Selected draft results on medium-term baseline and stylized CAP related scenarios
- First insights of model improvements and linkages.
Additionally, under the title ‘Ways forward - where are we now, what remains to be developed, and what is missing?’ participants were invited to state their specific opinions, proposals and preferences to the following six questions:
- Are farmers’ decisions and their responses to changes well covered?
- Is demand adequately reflected (with respect to changing diets, product differentiation, societal demand, developing countries, and bio-economy)?
- Supply chains - what is missing in their representation (decision making, market power, structural changes, and competitiveness)?
- Are Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) efficiently addressed by the available tools?
- By concentrating in tests strongly on Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and climate change - what are we missing?
- What else needs to be covered? Based on the results preliminary conclusion are presented.