Report 1:
This report describes the enhancements achieved in SUPREMA with respect to the model linkages. We present chapter-wise the linkages between the models and document the applicability of the linkage with different simulation shocks. Where applicable, we show the advance, achieved with the linkage, compared to stand alone simulation.
For further details see: SUPREMA_Report_1.pdf (PDF, 3.8 MB)
Report 2:
Report 2 describes the main outcomes of the modelling of the agricultural policy scenario have been done as part of the SUPREMA project. The time frame of this scenario is a medium-term horizon. The aim of this modelling exercise is to compare different models and/or model combinations, that have a large degree of ‘similarity’ as they have a large set of joined indicator variables. As it here concerns a comparison of the AGMEMOD-MITERRA (combined) modelling tool on the one hand and the CAPRI model on the other hand, the main focus has been on comparing and discussing selected model results in both the economic and agronomic or biophysical domains.The results provide a good illustration of the impacts at different levels, e.g. Member State, regional, sectoral and commodity, etc. Two variants of the agricultural policy scenario have been simulated and compared: (i) a CAP greening scenario; and (ii) a sustainable diet scenario.
For further details see: SUPREMA_Report_2.pdf (PDF, 1.15 MB)
Report 3:
Report 3 presents the results of the climate change scenario. The analysis quantifies the GHG mitigation potential of the EU’s agricultural sector and domestic and global impacts of the EU policy conditional on different levels of GHG mitigation efforts in the rest of the world. The model-based analysis covers the SUPREMA models CAPRI, GLOBIOM and MAGNET with scenarios where the EU only takes ambitious unilateral climate action up to scenario where the 1.5°C target is pursued globally.
Results show that even an ambitious EU mitigation policy targeting agriculture via a carbon tax delivers only limited GHG savings at global scale if other regions outside the EU do not take action on agriculture. In this set-up, emission leakage substantially reduces domestic EU emission savings while EU livestock producers are heavily impacted and production decreases. However, if at least modest mitigation efforts are pursued in parallel outside the EU, impacts on local producers can be buffered as EU farmers are among the most GHG efficient producers and can maintain their global competitiveness despite the ambitious EU mitigation policy. In addition, 19 times higher GHG abatement can be realized if modest (10% of the carbon price) efforts are adopted outside the EU compared to the scenario where only EU takes mitigation action, which allows to realize already 50% of the total agricultural mitigation potential expected to reach the 1.5°C target cost-efficiently across all sectors of the economy.
For further details see: SUPREMA_Report_3.pdf (PDF, 438 KB)